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如果世界其他國家像中國這樣運(yùn)作,全球金融危機(jī)將很快成為過去——中國央行行長周小川最近暗示說。他表示,中國已經(jīng)作出了“迅速、堅(jiān)定和有效的政策回應(yīng),這顯示出當(dāng)需要作出性命攸關(guān)的決策時(shí),這種高級體制的澳際性”。在本周四倫敦舉行的G20峰會(huì)上,中國主席胡錦濤很清楚,他的國家得到了一個(gè)走上舞臺(tái)中心的機(jī)會(huì)。請看下面的雙語新聞。
Chinese leaders are not accustomed to that position. The late Deng Xiaoping gave warning, in the wake of the collapse of European communism, that China should keep a low profile in world affairs and bide its time. He had good reason then to be cautious. It was still by no means certain how China’s Communist Party would weather the political storm. The country’s economy had yet to take off and China was still viewed as a pariah by many in the West because of its bloody crackdown, in 1989, on pro-democracy campaigners in Tiananmen Square.
中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人們還不習(xí)慣這一位置。晚年的鄧小平曾警告說,歐洲共產(chǎn)主義崩潰后,中國應(yīng)當(dāng)在國際事務(wù)中保持較低的姿態(tài),為自己爭取時(shí)間。他有理由保持謹(jǐn)慎。當(dāng)時(shí),中國共產(chǎn)黨完全無法確定是否能平安度過那場政治風(fēng)暴。雖然經(jīng)濟(jì)尚未起飛,但由于89那次事件,中國仍被許多西方國家視為異類。
Now, with the West in economic disarray, China’s leaders see an opportunity if not to supplant American power, at least to start wielding a bit more of the clout that they feel they deserve given recent, rapid economic growth and the country’s importance to a global recovery. Notwithstanding theenormous social stresses that China is facing at home as a result of rising unemployment, caused by an export slump, Chinese officials recently have assumed an increasingly self-confident tone when speaking to the rest of the world.
現(xiàn)在,隨著西方經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入混亂,中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人們看到了一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)。近來這個(gè)國家經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長以及對于全球復(fù)蘇的重要性令他們感到自己理當(dāng)?shù)玫竭@個(gè)禮物,即使不能撼動(dòng)強(qiáng)大的美國,至少也能施加更多的影響。由于出口蕭條造成的失業(yè)率上升,中國國內(nèi)正面臨著巨大的社會(huì)壓力,但即便如此,中國官員們越發(fā)故作鎮(zhèn)定地向世界其他國家發(fā)出自信的腔調(diào)。
Mr Zhou had some advice for Western governments. They should give powers to ministries of finance and central banks “to use extraordinary means to contain systemic risk”. This, he said, would allow them to “act boldly and expeditiously without having to go through a lengthy or even painful approval process.” China has avoided any such difficulties with its 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package announced in November. Officials have provided only the barest of details of this. The rubber-stamp legislature has not been consulted.
周先生已經(jīng)對西方政府提出了一些忠告——他們應(yīng)當(dāng)賦予財(cái)政部和央行權(quán)利,“運(yùn)用特殊手段抑制系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”。他認(rèn)為,這將使得這些機(jī)構(gòu)“大膽行動(dòng),并且無須通過冗長甚至是痛苦的批準(zhǔn)過程,迅速采取行動(dòng)”。去年十一月通過四萬億元人民幣(5860億美元)經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃時(shí),中國就避開了這類困難。官員們對該計(jì)劃細(xì)節(jié)語焉不詳,橡皮圖章式的立法機(jī)關(guān)也被晾在一旁。
In another article, Mr Zhou suggested the creation of a new international reserve currency, managed by the IMF, to replace the dollar. Western officials have given that a lukewarm response, but there has been greater interest in China’s proposals for a restructuring of voting rights at the IMF to allow developing nations more say. With almost $2 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, China is seen by Western countries as a big potential lender to the IMF, and thus to countries in need of financial rescue.
在另外一篇文章中,周先生提議建立一種由國際貨幣基金組織管理的新型的國際儲(chǔ)備貨幣,以取代美元。對此,西方官員反映不溫不火,但對中國提出要求國際貨幣基金組織重新規(guī)劃選舉權(quán),讓發(fā)展中國家得到更多話語權(quán)的建議產(chǎn)生了較大興趣。由于持有幾乎兩萬億美元外匯儲(chǔ)備,中國被西方國家視作國際貨幣基金組織和那些需要財(cái)政援助國家的潛在債主。
China, however, is still reluctant to stick its neck out far. It has not made public any detailed plans for IMF rorm. Neither has it made explicit whether or how any lending by China would be conditional on such changes. In an article in the Times on March 27th, Wang Qishan, a deputy prime minister, said that it was “neither realistic nor fair to set the scale of contribution simply by the size of foreign-exchange reserves”. But he did not offer a sum.
然而,中國仍不愿冒太大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。對于國際貨幣基金組織的改革,中國并沒有發(fā)表任何公開的細(xì)節(jié)。也沒有明確表示一旦國際貨幣基金組織同意其改革條件,它將是否或怎樣提供貸款。在3月27日《泰晤士報(bào)》一篇文章中,中國副總理王岐山寫道,“僅僅通過外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模來決定捐款數(shù)量,這既不現(xiàn)實(shí)也不公平”。但他沒有提供(貌似是捐款的總數(shù),譯者)總數(shù)。
China remains wary of its own economic predicament. Although the goal remains to achieve 8% GDP growth this year, this would still be slow by the double-digit standards of much of this decade. The World Bank predicts 6.5% growth. Even Mr Zhou sounded a note of caution. Asked whether China’s economic slowdown had ended he told reporters on March 28th, during a visit to Colombia, that it was “still uncertain”. The answer, he said, depended on whether the global financial crisis had yet “reached bottom”.
中國仍對自己尷尬的經(jīng)濟(jì)處境保持警惕。盡管今年該國仍然要求自己達(dá)到8%的GDP增長,但相對于過去十年常常高達(dá)兩位數(shù)的增長來說,這一增長速度并不算快。世界銀行預(yù)計(jì)的增長數(shù)字是6.5%。即使周先生也語出謹(jǐn)慎。3月28日訪問哥倫比亞期間,當(dāng)被問及中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑是否已經(jīng)終止時(shí),他對記者表示,“仍不確定”。他認(rèn)為,答案依賴于全球金融危機(jī)是否已經(jīng)“觸底”。
As China Daily, a state-owned English-language newspaper, put it, “what China is going to do is be seen and be heard” at the G20. President Hu will bask in the limelight of his first meeting with President Obama on the sidelines of the London summit and do little to brush off comment that it is really a “G2” of China and America that counts most. But China’s leaders appear uncertain themselves how far they can push their diplomatic advantage.
正如一家國營英文報(bào)紙《中國日報(bào)》所言,在G20峰會(huì)上,“中國要作的是被看和被聽”。倫敦峰會(huì)期間,胡主席與奧巴馬總統(tǒng)在聚光燈下的首次會(huì)晤將讓前者感到舒適,而且對于那些中美兩國將成為事實(shí)上的“G2”的說法,他也可以完全不予理睬。但對于自己手中的外交優(yōu)勢,中國的那些領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人們似乎也不清楚怎樣運(yùn)用。
Amy GUO 經(jīng)驗(yàn): 17年 案例:4539 擅長:美國,澳洲,亞洲,歐洲
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